[philrapo]

Nice, looking forward to reading your thoughts. I've been thinking about this myself recently.

I'd suggest using a higher estimate for the value of rewards points. (You used a 1%.) You can explicitly get >1% cash back on many cards, so I'd argue that's really the lower bound.[1]

Most reward points can be redeemed for ~2%, with conscious consumers getting even more than that. [2]

Consumers are very aware of the value they're getting, too. If you read AMEX company filings, the redemption rate on MR points is >90%. I found that shockingly high. It's tough to get consumers to switch to bitcoin when it's worse value and more risk.

[1] https://creditcards.chase.com/freedom?jp_cmp=cc/freedom/off/... [2] http://boardingarea.com/onemileatatime/2012/05/25/my-updated...

[davidrangel]

Thanks. You make a good point about the rewards. I thought 1% could be a decent estimate given that not everyone pays attention, some points are never redeemed and rewards over 1% are usually only for specific purchase types (e.g., gas). But I may very well have underestimated this. And if people do redeem at a 90%+ rate, then they will definitely notice if there are no rewards on the Bitcoin side.

Very interesting.

[philrapo]

Here's a source for that stat from a Q3'12 AMEX earnings call transcript:

"As you know, our current ultimate redemption rate is 93%, a very high assumption for any consumer loyalty program."

[1] http://seekingalpha.com/article/931161-american-express-mana...