[hga]

Look at the chart here on existing implicit marginal tax rates: http://legalinsurrection.com/2014/02/cbo-confirms-obamacare-... (implicit includes loss of subsidies):

Note the rise from 25% to nearly 50% in the ~ $65K to ~ $85K income range, after which it plateaus to around that $96K threshold; add Obamacare subsidy losses and we're absolutely guaranteed a significant impact, unless people's economic behavior has radically changed since the '80s. Which is of course what the CBO is saying, among many other dire things (0.5% GDP loss, 6-7 million losing their employer health coverage, around the same number uninsured (although a lower percentage because of population growth)).

Note also the > 100% rates around $25K to $45K, and the steep climb that starts around $15K. That's the big effect I was talking about, except we generally don't count people or families in most parts of the country making $45K as "poor".

But, yeah, exactly what's going to happen at that income range is yet to be seen, and at this moment neither of our impressions can be stated to be right or wrong.