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by acro 4513 days ago
Still, the performance of computers is increasing exponentially. The arguments in this article seemed a bit weak.

http://top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/

2 comments

Isn't that part of the author's point? That Kurzweil is picking and choosing exponential developments because they fit his narrative? Since none of us know what the requirements of the Singularity are, it seems odd to extrapolate from a single abstract indicator and assume that it will happen "somewhere" on that line.
And we all know that calculation speed is the main quality of IQ.
What happens when performance approaches infinity? Many AI problems have been solved because there is now simply more processing power available. For example computer Go using Monte Carlo methods. Just a couple of years ago people thought it was impossible for computers to beat human professionals.
As far as I know no computer Go program has ever won against human Go professionals on the even game of 19x19 Go. Do you know otherwise?

My information is from http://computer-go.info/h-c/

I stand corrected, no official even game wins against professionals. Maybe I remember seeing unofficial games on KGS. The progress is impressive anyway, just a while ago the best computer programs were around 8-10 kyu level.