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by KnowledgeSponge 4519 days ago
So since Optimizely basically lets the test run until it "reaches statistical significance" with their Chance to Beat Baseline number, would you say they are doing it wrong?

Methodology here: https://help.optimizely.com/hc/en-us/articles/200039895-Chan...

I've often run tests that seem to be in the 90%+ chance to beat baseline, but the graphs just didn't look like they were finished or had enough data, so I'd let it run a bit longer. Sure enough, big changes in percent lift, and also big changes in confidence dropping down below 90% (sometimes MUCH lower), and occasionally coming back up.