[huherto]

The article was frustrating since it is not clear on what the disagreement is. My guess is that John Kay is referring to the first myth. "POOR COUNTRIES ARE DOOMED TO STAY POOR"

According to Gates, poor countries are making progress.

According to Kay, there is a ceiling on how much progress a country can make.

So really, the positions are not contradictory since there is a big space between the current state of poor countries (which are making progress) and the ceiling that Kay proposes. Furthermore the ceiling it self can move up overtime. And now I hate for Kay for not writing a clear article.

[AnimalMuppet]

And, if I understand him correctly, the ceiling is set by the quality of the country's institutions. That's really hard to fix.

Gates may be right that most countries will be out of absolute poverty. (In fact, I hope he is right.) But I suspect that Kay is right that most countries still won't be in the "rich" camp, even by 2014 standards.