[timsally]

> Everyone has already forgotten Pfc. Manning rotting away for 35 years.

Please represent the facts accurately. Manning is eligible for release in 7-8 years. I'm willing to make a long bet (http://longbets.org) for $300.00 that Manning does not serve 35 years, or "rot away for 35 years" as you put it. Are you up for it?

[gamerdonkey]

I hate that this nitpicking has become the standard response whenever someone is facing a prison sentence. It utterly belittles the hardship that people like Pfc. Manning actually face, even if it is for 7-8 years in the end.

Additionally, the parole or probation that she faces even after release are still punishment. It's not as though the troubles are suddenly over.

Treating the issue in this way makes it sound like the judge announced the 35 year sentence, slammed a gavel, then looked over to Manning with a wink and a whimsical smile. That's not what happened. 35 years was the sentence, and that is what you should expect to hear in relation to the case, even if it can be reduced with work on the part of the defendant.

[lispsil]

Eligible for parole means nothing too. They won't ever let manning out early because they must 'set an example' to deter future whistleblowers, and don't want manning on the talkshow circuit talking about war crimes

[sliverstorm]

35 years vs. 7-8 years is not exactly nitpicking.

What they get out in, is just as relevant as what they were sentenced to. Otherwise, why do we get so mad when a murderer is sentenced to 20 years and out in 2?

[gamerdonkey]

I agree that it is a fairly large difference in number, but I still think that trumpeting on about it distracts from the primary discussion.

At best, this is all speculation. 7-8 years is the time before Chelsea Manning becomes eligible for parole. Whether or not she is actually released will depend on a number of factors, including the political climate at the time. We'll only really find out around 2021.

Finally, and this is something I touched on in my first comment, even 7 years in a federal prison is nothing to sneeze at. A non-trivial amount of time spent on federal probation after release isn't exactly going to be a cakewalk, either. And this is all on top of the time already spent in the military justice system, including almost a year of solitary confinement. Basically, I'm just asking that we don't downplay what must be an awful experience simply because our justice system has wiggle room.

[ck2]

After the aggressiveness of the current administration, you think there is a chance the next administration might come along and say "nope, they need to serve the full 35 years".

The sentence is 35 years. They could legally be forced to serve the full 35 for any reason. As far as I am concerned that is the weight being hung around their neck, not the imaginary eight.

And eight years in prison is an insanely long time, don't forget the terrible health care and dangers from other inmates. You can lose all your teeth and die from infections very easily if someone decides to just let you rot.

[MBlume]

Your comment is unclear on whether you intend to bet with timsally

[guelo]

He was given 3.5 years for time served. He'll really be eligible for parole after a full decade in jail.

[ck2]

Yeah what's a decade in prison anyway.

Go spend 10 days in your bathroom. I bet you cannot do it.

Now realize how incredibly comfortable you are compared to prison.

[untog]

How is that a useful comparison to anything?

[MBlume]

She

[ShawnBird]

First I have heard about that. I had to look it up on wikipedia. I have a resentment of gendered pronouns but I don't think there is any realistic hope for change.

[rdl]

I'd bet on released at first parole hearing as long as Manning is willing to be "quiet" and just goes on to enjoy life. Which would probably be a desirable outcome, given age. It's pretty easy to make an argument for leniency based on age, irresponsibility-when-committed, and complete life changes (I mean, sex change, the Snowden revelations, by then no troops in Iraq/Afghanistan (hopefully!), stepping down from perpetual war (if for no other reason than economics), and at least one change of President.

[guelo]

I'd take the bet if you'd be willing to take the position that he'll be released in 7 years. Betting hat he'll be paroled somewhere between 7 and 35 years is silly.

[kingkawn]

I would add another $300 to this bet as well in support of your position.