[rayiner]

People have been saying for decades that NYC is unsustainable, yet it's still the center of the country for finance. San Francisco could well become the next New York: software engineers getting paid $300k/year and talking about how they're not really "rich" because they can't even afford to buy a 2 bedroom condo.

[pacaro]

Or it could become the next Detroit when the tech industry decides that it doesn't "need" to be in the Bay Area.

I doubt that there'll be that dramatic a change because there are too many actors, Detroit was more vulnerable because it depended on such a small number of anchor employers

[bruceb]

Detroit is freezing cold during the winter and doesn't have the same scenery. Even if tech declined SF will be a hot destination.

[dredmorbius]

Detroit's early draw was its access to transportation and raw materials: iron ore, coal, the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway. For heavy manufacturing, these were all advantages.

San Francisco has appeal for weather, scenery, and an excellent harbor. Disadvantages include earthquake hazard, and an increasingly unreliable water supply. The latter isn't critical yet, but could well be.

[rayiner]

The car industry didn't move from Detroit. The work got automated away and growth got captured by foreign competitors. If that happened to finance, New York would suffer the same fate. But by the time robots can program themselves, all bets are off anyway.

[busterarm]

The finance industry is entirely dependent on proximity, even more so with the increase of algo. At the highest level of business-dealings, your company has to be within "10 minutes midtown mid-afternoon traffic" distance from the people you meet with (clients and other financial companies) in order to be taken seriously. This is why NY hedge funds tend to be clustered around Midtown East and banks are around Battery Park.

The tech industry doesn't really have such requirements. People are comfortable with working remotely and using video conferencing; more importantly, the tech industry doesn't have regulatory requirements like the financial industry does that require people to conduct business from a physical office.

Whether SF is sustainable or not, well, I lean towards not, but in the long-term it looks pretty bad socioeconomically. Personally, I have no desire to live in the bay area and look for work elsewhere.

Signed: Former hedge fund employee and New Yorker.