[tptacek]

This comment isn't responsive either to 'patio11 or to the thread. The question is, "are VC's missing out on lots of successful exits because they're allergic to 50MM outcomes?". The answer seems to be "no", because the returns on 2 50MM exits in a 10 company portfolio don't make up for the goose eggs from the other 8.

The fact that many of us believe that any given "billion dollar" prospect is counterfeit is neither here nor there. Sure, most VCs also fail with the "bet on billion dollar companies" strategy. Most VCs fail. But that doesn't mean that they should select instead a strategy that appears to be mathematically predetermined to fail.

[michaelochurch]

What makes you think that only 2 of the exits will succeed? Or that the projects slated for $50M won't turn out to be worth $500M when new approaches or uses for the work are discovered?

There are too many hidden variables and no one knows what they are doing. I don't.

[tptacek]

If you have a strategy for investing in 10 companies and having 5 of them exit at 50MM+, you should raise money for a fund.