[adventured]

You don't have many (zero?) opportunities to trade 10 minutes of your day for a chance at a billion dollars. Particularly without spending any meaningful amount of money or taking on any meaningful amount of risk. The substantial problem with the stock market and casino versions, is you'll have to constantly put your ever larger winnings at risk with each cycle upward. This introduces an extraordinarily massive risk factor - to real assets - to the equation, that you're not accounting for.

[gibybo]

>This introduces an extraordinarily massive risk factor - to real assets - to the equation, that you're not accounting for.

No it doesn't. It's identical, except that rolling your bets gives you the additional option which can only be considered more valuable.

And interestingly in this case, Buffet will actually provide the same opportunity if it comes to it. If you get the first couple rounds of the bracket correct, Buffet will be right there with a check offering to buy you out of your position.

[rahimnathwani]

Upvoted.

If I had (only) 500m USD the chance of me letting it ride with 2x return and 50% chance of winning is precisely zero.

So, with the roulette example, I would never win 1bn USD. From what you say about Buffet's early buy-out, the same may apply in this case.