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by gibybo
4528 days ago
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It really bugs me that the article has 4,294,967,296 as the odds, so I can't help but correct it. They don't have the odds calculated to 10 significant digits. We don't have enough data on the teams to get anywhere close to that level of precision. They made the naive assumption that all games are independent events and that all games have exactly a 50% chance to go to either team. Then they computed 2^32, which is STILL massively incorrect even with those assumptions because there are 63 games, not 32. |
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