That's the real kicker for me, the idea that being currently employed under a W2 means anything for future earnings. That is a very outdated concept, IMO.
It's not as strong of an indicator as it was in the past, but if you have years of track record with your employer you probably will keep getting that paycheck in the future- and if you get fired, you can probably find a new job.
Not a perfect signal, but it's not like there actually is a perfect signal to be had.