Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by alienfluid 4540 days ago
What an utter waste of capital.
3 comments

Can you explain your reasoning behind this?
Because Path is almost certainly in a death spiral, based based on the layoffs and talent exodus. Because their CEO is Dave Morin, who hasn't done himself any favors by sounding like a huge douchebag [1]. Because they're a social media app on the wane, which is as good as a dead social media app.

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/my-phone/2013/03/dave-mori...

That's kind of a shame. Path was one of the social networks that I didn't hate.
Personal opinion, based on:

- Lack of traction as evidenced by dismal ratings on the App Store compared to competitors - Supposed focus on international markets without clear commitment to establishing a presence there - HR troubles (as commenter linked to below) - Indication that money is being spent on paid installs by virtue of placing in the top 100 in Chad and Niger

Caught in the sight of #valleywag - http://valleywag.gawker.com/tag/path

For the cynical it's a collective eyeroll.

Those titles are so ridiculous, it makes Gawker look worse than Path.
How much are Path going to charge for their stickers? How many do they expect to sell? Average salary in Indonesia is $3420.

http://data.worldbank.org/country/indonesia

A good estimate would be how much LINE has been able to charge for their stickers there.
Here's some old numbers: http://thenextweb.com/asia/2013/03/07/path-3-0-inspired-by-a...

Summary: low (if in USD, high if in local currency).

They're the highest iOS grossing social network in Indonesia.
Pretty solid reason for an investor there to take on risk. I imagine they're users themselves then too.
A $500 million dollar valuation based on being strong in Indonesia? Something doesn't add up.
Indonesia is the 16th highest GDP in the world. 4th most populous. If they can take and hold Indonesia, they might be able to continue into Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Owning that much of the growing 3rd world in Asia in 10 years of compounded growth in those countries is worth a lot of money to a lot of really big tech companies. It's an easy thesis when Google and Facebook are willing to pay up for social networks.
Interesting, but this may be a spectacular own goal.

Indonesians probably found Path interesting because it was foreign. They probably didn't care that a company in San Francisco was slurping up their address book. However, a local conglomerate with a dodgy reputation?

http://en.dailysocial.net/post/outrage-over-announcement-tha...

>Indonesians outraged

The investment news from Bakrie sent a shock across Indonesia. Across Twitter and Path, people are talking as if the group had acquired Path and many have decided to remove Path from their devices...

The Bakrie Group and family has a terrible reputation in the country. As per the Jakarta Post report in February 2013, Bakrie Life has been in a deadlock with its clients regarding a failed investment scheme...

The group’s largest indiscretion in the country, and one that’s causing much of people’s anger towards the family, is the seven year mudflow in Porong, Sidoarjo, East Java. The ecological disaster has been attributed to Lapindo Brantas, a Bakrie-owned company, which conducted a drilling expedition in the area in 2006...

Those facts you read there were just the tip of the iceberg.
See my response here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7043851

In short: SE Asia is where Social Networking sites die.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see people come and try to turn this around (e.g.: make money as a hi-tech company in my home country) but so far the facts have stated otherwise.

Keeps it from accumulating and feeding vampire-like, etc.