Probably before that hits, automation for most of the product. Eventually we will need very few people to produce any part of the product. We will automate resource extraction. Automate resource delivery. Automate resource refinement. Etc.
So this leaves us with a large population that has little point in the current economic system. So we'll get higher unemployment globally. Historically this has lead to wars, either internal or external. Marx/Hegel are right. The haves and the have-nots will duke it out. The have-nots will, like Norther American generals in the civil war, throw bodies at the haves. Eventually coming to a new equilibrium of far fewer have-nots (many are dead) and probably fewer haves. Eventually everything is owned commonly and a new society is birthed based on the idea of self actualization through experimentation.
Another option : the haves will offer a tiny share of the economy(which with optimized technology might suffice for a basic standard of living) and zero influence to the have nots and drown them with escapism ,all controlled from above by a strong totalitarian state.
Sound familiar ? if it works so far, why won't it work further on ?
I don't think escapism actually escapes anything. The US welfare state is escapism from a certain view point. However, the people in it are pretty much locked in place by the system. They are also locked out of "good places". I conjecture this is what causes the crime rate among that same population. They see little opportunity to improve their lot by any means other than violence.
There's some research[1] showing that video game escapism reduce crime. Other research show that porn reduces sexual crimes.
Add to that the free use of marijuana (which generally decreases motivation ) , the better capabilities of police enforcing crimes, the possible growing acceptance of unemployment in an automated society, you'll see even further reductions.
except they can't track when it's cloudy, and because of pollution that is always. Also the automated soldiers are very expensive, and prone to crash when there's an update to the time zone libraries, or when reading street signs in foreign languages (utf-8 is never properly implemented, not even in the future)
"Historically this has lead to wars, either internal or external."
War is always a safe prediction, but do you have a specific historical precedent for large-scale, long-term, structural unemployment? I cannot think of one.
French revolution within Paris and other large cities at the time. We also see riots (small war-like-things) throughout Europe during the mid-financial crisis. Riots around the US that were largely race based during the 60s and 70s. Race == poor at this time. Eventually the nanny state woke up and tried to take care of them better as a result.
As far as outward wars: WWII. Massive economic for German. War helped create jobs.
By then the economy will be bad enough in some of the first countries they abandoned. 20 more years of decay in Detroit and it will be another viable 3rd-world manfacturing hellhole.
Many parts of Africa are not politically stable enough to support this manufacturing. You should watch this Planet Money article to understand why Manufacturing (of T-Shirts in this case) move from one country to the next.
Probably true. I wonder why nobody ever counts Africa in these discussions. It's always "but what about when all the poor Asian workers start to earn higher wages and there are no more cheap countries left?".
As @smoorman1024 stated, too much political instability in much of Africa. It's true that some countries are stable, but (e.g.) being next to an unstable country doesn't affect the risk in a positive direction.
Apparently things are changing. Compare Asia from 1975 and today. It doesn't take long for such a profund change. If I was an investor, I would think that now is the right time to start looking at this continent. Chiniese already do. Many africans are highly educated but lack opportunities to put this competence in application. This continent is full of unexploited opportunities.
They move to another country because the people in the first company become rich enough to demand more money. Sounds like a win. :b The real problem is if they stay in the same place forever because that place is poor forever.
Probably before that hits, automation for most of the product. Eventually we will need very few people to produce any part of the product. We will automate resource extraction. Automate resource delivery. Automate resource refinement. Etc.
So this leaves us with a large population that has little point in the current economic system. So we'll get higher unemployment globally. Historically this has lead to wars, either internal or external. Marx/Hegel are right. The haves and the have-nots will duke it out. The have-nots will, like Norther American generals in the civil war, throw bodies at the haves. Eventually coming to a new equilibrium of far fewer have-nots (many are dead) and probably fewer haves. Eventually everything is owned commonly and a new society is birthed based on the idea of self actualization through experimentation.