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by joezydeco 4547 days ago
That seems like a completely different problem to me, since all randomness is out of the system the moment you see the first flip.
1 comments

OK, so now imagine that there are 1000000 double-headed coins, 1000000 double-tailed coins, and one fair coin. Now (1) there's still (potentially) randomness present, so it's not "completely different" from the original problem, but (2) the ignore-the-data approach gives an obviously wrong answer whereas using the data gives a believable answer.