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by fatca 4559 days ago
The G4 (USD,EUR,JPY,GBP) may last for somewhat longer than the other fiat currencies, but that does not detract from the fact that currency crises in the smaller fiat currencies are very common (think Argentina).

People who live in a G4 country are apparently incapable of imagining that the situation elsewhere is seriously different than in their own country.

There are lots of Mickey Mouse fiat currencies around issued by the banana republics that keep debasing them until they collapse. Even the Russian ruble is a joke that became entirely worthless, three times, in the span of two decades.

Instead of dollarizing during a monetary crisis, as these smaller/weaker fiat currency areas used to do in the past, they may elect to bitcoinize.

If that happens, you could end up with an entire country using bitcoin. As soon as this happens, nobody will ever manage to eliminate bitcoin in that country.

History does not repeat itself. Collapsing currencies now face a prospect of hysteresis. Reintroducing fiat currency will not work if people have already moved over to bitcoin.

With smaller fiat currencies collapsing one by one -- as they always do -- bitcoin will keep growing stronger and stronger.

1 comments

> Reintroducing fiat currency will not work if people have already moved over to bitcoin.

Why not?

> With smaller fiat currencies collapsing one by one -- as they always do -- bitcoin will keep growing stronger and stronger.

Why would Bitcoin be immune from the factors that cause fiat currencies to collapse? If strong fiat currencies can suddenly lose value, it seems likely that Bitcoin could suffer the same fate. Do you have reason to believe that Bitcoin is different?

> Why would Bitcoin be immune from the factors that cause fiat currencies to collapse?

I think the argument is that the more people whouse it the stronger the currency becomes. It has an extremely low barrier to entry because it can be used alongside other currency, and on top of this is decentralized (no "off" switch).

If fiat currencies are replaced by bitcoin, then yes it probably would become "stronger" (ie, more value in relation to other currencies). That's assuming a country who's currency/economy collapsed decides to use bitcoin as the national currency. I don't see why they would at this point, though.

I do think it's entirely susceptible to sudden value loss, at least for the next 5-10 years.