[exue]

Antifragile - Nassim Nicholas Taleb. His other books Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan are more accessible - all incredibly great discussions of risk, probability, complex systems such as the global financial and banking industries, and how many attempts at risk modeling fail to recognize important unpredictable "black swan" events.

[pastpartisan]

tldr version of his books: stuff can happen that you don't expect

[derivagral]

The point is that these things are much more likely to occur than you'd like to think, not that you don't expect it.