| Used to think the same way about most investing till I figured out better. I do not know the specifics of this particular deal, nor have I used the product, but I hope the points are of going to be some use. Let us look at it this way. Assume there are 200 funds out there who can do a series A of this size. That would naturally mean that not every fund is going to be either a leader or someone who spots new trends (there are not enough trends out there). Naturally, a lot of them have to invest in deals in other companies in a hot sector. A lot of investment is momentum-driven and momentum is often driven by the narrative. You have to remember that as long as a successful exit happens, the fund winds up with a good deal irrespective of whether the public (IPO) or the acquiring company (M&A) eventually profits from it. NoSQL has that momentum at the moment. A healthy start-up ecosystem can easily support more than a handful of companies in a single domain. Once the narrative for the domain really picks up, even the not-so-great ones (again, I have no clue about RethinkDB) stand a good chance of being acquired as long as there is decent enough traction and the sector is so hot that there is pressure on the GPs to make a play in it. The later they get into the game, the pricier the ticket becomes, but you get lesser risk too. And all of this is perfectly OK and fair. |
This is a really good breakdown. I can't read our investors's minds, but I'm pretty sure this would be a worst case scenario for them. It's certainly not why we're doing Rethink -- if we thought it would be a #5 company in the space, we'd pack up and do something else (life's too short).
The NoSQL market is reminiscent of "horseless carriages" -- as long as you define a technology by an absence of something, you know you're early in the game. Databases are a fundamental part of the technology stack, and they tend to easily stick around for 20-30 years. We think we can build a long-term open source company that will stick around for that long (incidentally, that's why we take conventions in ReQL so seriously -- we imagine millions of programmers fifteen years from now cursing at us for a stupid naming convention).
It's not hard to imagine groundbreaking features in NoSQL products that nobody is shipping. That's why RethinkDB exists, and we think we won't be a niche product for long.