[rplacd]

Assuming none of the rest of the infrastructure'll change - I'd consider working with possibilities as future "when"s impractical enough; a user'll go download Firefox, the standard Gatekeeper denial message'll pop up:

    "Firefox" can't be opened because it was not downloaded from the Mac App Store.
    Your security preferences allow installation of only apps from the Mac App Store.
    Safari downloaded this file today at...

And the user'll either trip over the message and give up in frustration - there will be a class of user who'll visually pattern-match, rather than engage with a meaningful back-and-forth with their computer - or pop into the System Preferences, find Security waiting for them, and off they go.

Fairly banal, but by far and large that's because the assumption that switching the default to the MAS-only option would be a novel attempt at total exclusion shouldn't be true, give or take the major assumption outlined above: not so when the current default's in fact "Mac App Store and identified developers" - narrowing the locus of trusted sources, then, is a change that should happen independently of how easy it'll be to get an unsigned app running.

[JohnTHaller]

The default used to be the bottom option which allows all apps. Then Apple switched it to App Store and Publishers that paid Apple $99 with the introduction of Gatekeeper. They'll switch it to App Store only by default soon enough.

I'd wager that when Apple switches it to Mac App Store only by default, lots of open source developers will simply give up on Macs. I was planning on developing for Mac myself. Even bought a second hand Macbook to fire things up. But the way Apple works, I just don't trust that it'll be viable in a couple years. Given Apple's arbitrary application of rules in the iOS ecosystem, I have a dim view of the Mac's future in terms of openness. I decided instead to continue to focus on Windows and expand into *nix and Android.

[rplacd]

I doubt open-source developers were paying to have their executables codesigned in the first place - I'd assumed in the argument above, at the very least, that the Gatekeeper denial isn't the silent suppression the iOS kernel uses; and on that basis little may as well change for them.

Projecting that Apple'll change both the default position of a radio button and their marginalia and messaging around Gatekeeper is different (as a somewhat more substantial change) from your premise, though.

[JohnTHaller]

A 3rd party to VLC tried getting VLC in the Mac App Store and then later it was pulled for violating the GPL. VLC had to relicense their whole code base to get in the App Store fully legally. Most open source projects will be unable to do that due to the sheer number of contributors and resistance to hobbling the copyleft license on their code.

Most of us that had been watching Apple had projected that Apple would launch a Mac App store and make it the main place to get Mac software while still keeping clauses in their App Store license that are GPL hostile. That came to pass. As for Gatekeeper, expect that Apple will switch the setting in the next couple years. After all, Mac went from allowing installs of any software by default to restricting unsigned apps, essentially going from the lowest Gatekeeper setting to the middle, with little fanfair and minimal pushback from their userbase. They'll have an easy time taking it the next step as well. It's only really holdouts like Adobe that aren't in the app store that matter at this point. And Apple will likely force them into the App Store to get their 30% cut in the next couple years with the Gatekeeper change.

All of this fits with Apple's core values of making things easy, exercising complete control, and forcing an excessive revenue share from all publishers. It already works that way for iPhone/iPad/iPod apps, music, videos and books. The only holdout is Mac apps and that will happen soon enough. The only folks that usually argue that it won't are the so-called Mac power-users who continue to think that they are critical to Apple's success. This was true for a time when they catered to media professionals. But they don't anymore, nor do they have to. Apple's entire desktop/laptop hardware business accounts for 12% of their revenue and falling. They're a pure consumer company now, not a computer/tech company anymore. There's simply more money in it. That's why their bread and butter OS, iOS, is so completely locked down compared to all of their competitors. There's no reason for them not to follow suit on the desktop/laptop and get their 30% there as well.

[rplacd]

Your second point is terribly exhaustively induced - I've two nitpicks, though, for the record's sake: there's the fairly low-lying target of whether the poweruser response to the introduction of Gatekeeper suffices to predict the response to any total lockout within OS X: the first was defended on the basis that it retained the option; the second violates that.

There's also the question of their role: while "power users"'ll make up little direct contribution to Apple's haul, they've forced Apple to expedite the usual inscrutability at times: Apple's been fairly quick with the reassurances after the dual (perceived) fiascoes that were the half-done rehaulings of both FCPX and the-suite-formerly-known-as-iWork.

The question then becomes whether a variable amount of scorn'll sufficiently tarnish the Mac platform as a whole, and whether it retains any inertia to overcome any blip in opinion; that'll depend on what proportion of Apple's Mac owners do care - that hasn't been established specifically for the Mac itself. But it's fairly easy to project along the lines of your note on Apple's dependence on the consumer when accounting for all business: no doubt adoption rates during the past few years've been up to the halo effect, and we only need decide whether the proportions line up - the power users, after all, have always remained, by definition, a minority; they've thus always had a disproportionate amount of influence.

But you're arguing just as well for simply getting rid of their business selling computers: perhaps they could just as well play that chance and feel all the better focused for having fallen into the second. I'm sure there's a surprise within that mold happening within Apple's future; it'd at least give the analysts an impression of sufficient prescience. (Or they'd grant the issue sufficient apathy on that front solely on the basis that their computer lines have reverted back into one of their self-proclaimed "hobby" niches - half the fun of Kremlinology's in tossing away the assumption that every actor must constantly execute, chop-chop.)

(Which takes me back to your first - I do understand that both App Stores don't even so much as consider OSS licences: precisely my claim that "I doubt open-source developers were paying to have their executables codesigned in the first place".)

[JohnTHaller]

I never claimed they'd get rid of the ability to change the Gatekeeper settings. Merely that they'd switch the default again. Just like before when it went from unsigned being permitted to unsigned not being permitted. Sure, there's an option to change it. But, as it is now, the vast majority of users will never do it. So, yes, you'll have the option to change it as you can now. But with it off by default, it becomes onerous to distribute an app for Mac but not via the app store. Which is as Apple wants it. With all the apps in the Mac app store, Apple can collect their 30% and exclude competition to their own properties like they do on iOS.

FCPX and it's still less-than-previous-version-abilities and the abandonment of the Power Mac for so long are perfect examples of 'power users' being de-emphasized across Apple. Power users and media professionals were a much larger part of Apple's business in the past. They're an extremely tiny part of their business today and, as evidenced by Apple's own decisions and behavior, worth paying a little bit of attention to eventually, but not much.

The main reason for Apple to continue to build laptops and desktops is in service to their iOS and media businesses. Folks still need tools to build apps and put together media.

And as for open source projects having their code signed, LibreOffice, Mozilla Firefox, OpenOffice.org, my own PortableApps.com, etc would politely disagree with you. Being open source doesn't preclude paying to sign or having a business model. But the app store's onerous licensing agreement does preclude some of my apps from ever being able to be offered.

[rplacd]

I apologize for bringing up the first assumption and running off it - I'd went off with it precisely because you talked about complete exclusion: but of course Apple can do a very well-considered nudge; I'm treading right over false equivocation here, but the question so is always "to what extent?" - we're happy to consider Android relatively unfettering, despite having a similarly "recessed" option like your projected one, but no doubt we're judging it differently because a phone never needs to hold much promise.

An equivalence to Microsoft - I'm raising a great deal of them only because I believe having everyone rush to emulate Apple's MO has a bit of their exceptionalism rub off - is suggested by your second, though: both have individual consumers, customers dependent on unique line-of-business setups (as to the standard business, media professionals), and independent developers (the last two make up the constituency with an interest in unfettered application installation) in precisely the same proportion - but not the same magnitude. The question, yet again, is in precisely how the proportion represented by "a little bit" turns out to be - and how much that'll be when applied. One has to measure precisely how much's been added back to FCP to the magnitude of their retargeting of the FCP line in the first place to get an impression of their influence. Apple's able to show a great deal of strength, though; I'm simply sizing up the opposing influence.

But neither do I doubt that Apple'd ever deny themselves an opportunity for a bit of bravado: I shouldn't ever be overtly hostile to someone projecting reasoning with overt change and incompatibility for the ideal's sake onto Apple.

Edit: and my thanks to you for the PortableApps as well - I remember lugging around a gaudily pimped-up Firefox (Aqua theme and a Ghostfox-like quick-hide addon, woot woot) on a 512MB flashdrive in middle school, and subsequently realizing that the show of ricer agency can neutralize anyone's ability to reasonably judge taste. A fairly good life lesson to be had early while getting to terms with a teenager's first pecking order.