[Aardwolf]

There are max 21 million bitcoins.

There are 7 billion people.

So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person.

So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)?

Or am I misunderstanding something about currency?

[astrodust]

Could this comment be more Hacker News?

There are not 7 billion people that this will impact. How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone? How many are under the age of ten? That cuts out a huge chunk from that figure.

Then subtract all those too old to care about Bitcoin or internet anything.

Then remove from that those that have little faith in anything they can't touch and hold, physical currency, precious metals, or simply commodity items. Considering how reluctant some groups are to even use credit cards for online purchases, regardless of the enormous level of consumer protection provided by that service, this is an insurmountable hurdle for some.

There's at most a billion people in this market and for it to get that pervasive it will take an enormous upswing in popularity. At this point Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.

[panarky]

> At this point Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.

Bitcoin replacing the US dollar is unrealistic.

But if it's this valuable at the Cuban-peso level, how valuable will it be when it's as popular as, say, Canadian dollars or South African rand?

[astrodust]

It's not even at the Cuban Peso level and it's highly unlikely to eclipse the valuation of all currency for any developed country.

Canada is the 11th largest economy in the world, slightly behind Russia and India. South Africa is less than a quarter of that, but still way bigger than Bitcoin.

Cuba has a GDP of $68B. Is there that much Bitcoin being exchanged for goods yet?

I'd be impressed if Bitcoin transactions have eclipsed the economy of EVE Online.

[panarky]

> I'd be impressed if Bitcoin transactions have eclipsed the economy of EVE Online

You say that like it's a bad thing. Looks like upside to me.

I don't pretend to know the future of Bitcoin. If nothing else it's demonstrated the possibility of transmitting real value across borders without banks or governments.

That capability is worth a lot more than the GDP of Cuba.

I don't know if Bitcoin or something else will solve this problem, but now that everyone knows what's possible, it's as inevitable as any other obvious invention.

And whatever solves this problem will be worth a hell of a lot.

[rthomas6]

>How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone?

Irrelevant to your point, but less than you might think. Currency transfer using texting is popular and highly functional in several poor African countries. I agree with your assessment that these people won't be affected by Bitcoin, but using mobile phones to send money is actually VERY common in some poor countries.

[astrodust]

Yes, mobile phones are big in Africa, this I understand, but you're admitting you need a mobile phone to do this. Many people do not have one and aren't likely to get one soon for a host of reasons.

There are people that will never have the chance to own a mobile phone. They have other priorities, like fresh water, AIDS or malaria medication, or a reliable source of food.

[pmelendez]

"They have other priorities, like fresh water, AIDS or malaria medication, or a reliable source of food."

I am from a country with ~50% inflation and +30% of poverty (under the government scale, it is arguable to be way higher) and I can tell you that in that context you are overestimating people's priorities.

I have seen people with a minimum wage salary and without anything to eat but having smartphones and/or having cosmetic surgeries.

[astrodust]

That's the paradox of places like Africa. You have massive amounts of intense poverty, but technology still trickles down.

I'm still skeptical a currency created by crytoanarchists and supported by people with money to burn on ASIC hardware will have a meaningful impact on those with virtually nothing. If I'm wrong, so much the better.

[basch]

How about, this is just one blockchain. Competing cryptocurrencies and blockchains give way more than 21 million coins.

[krisdol]

Yeah, you're assuming each of 7 billion people will even have a share of one bitcoin. About half of the 7 billion people today live on less than $2.50 a day, and I don't see how extreme wealth inequality could get anything but worse with bitcoin.

[ErikAugust]

I've given this a little thought at least: http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin

[a3voices]

Great way of looking at it. I wonder what percent of the money supply gold is at.

[Casseres]

According to this website [0], the above-ground gold is valued at about $8.5 trillion USD. As this website [1] points out, the M2 amount of USD in the world's supply is $9 trillion. USD makes up about 15% of the total world's supple of $60 trillion.

This HN thread is by far the most interesting one I've read about speculating Bitcoin's future value.

[0] http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/ [1] http://erikaugust.com/blog/thought-on-bitcoin

[a3voices]

By the way, I also find this page interesting: http://www.coinometrics.com/bitcoin/bmix

[patrickk]

> So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency...

That's the big question isn't it? Will bitcoin take over, or will another digital cryptocurrency conjured out of the ether take over? (bitcoin 2.0)

> So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person.

There's some bitcoin amounts that are likely lost forever, perhaps miners that lost their private keys or whatever, or forgot about their bitcoin wallet from the early days, which will skew the calculations and make the effective total less than 21 million. Also, as others have noted, you are likely to see inequality with bitcoin wealth, just like regular assets and currencies.

[GhotiFish]

I don't see why those coins can't re-enter the system. Just tell everyone that coins stagnent for over 10 years will re-enter the system through miners, and have people consolidate and refresh their holdings. There's no reason that old coins can't be reintroduced.

[basch]

There is no reason to when the coins are infinity divisible.

[viraptor]

They are not. It's possible to divide, but there are limits.

Edit: not sure why this is downvoted. You can't divide one Satoshi, unless the protocol is updated.

[Atroxide]

You realize there is no down-voting right?

And your post isn't being voted for because it is irreverent.

Lets say that the value of a BC goes up to 1 Million USD somehow (which is REALLY unlikely), a Satoshi is still worth a penny. We understand that it can't divide infinity and yes you are right by saying it, but for this discussion, we are able to divide a bit-coin as much as needed, and besides- if it ever gets to the point (somehow) that we need to, a future protocol could fix it.

[viraptor]

There is downvoting for comments. You just cannot see it without high enough karma.

Regarding Satoshi being always worth something - yes, in theory that should be the case. Unless some huge changes take place. Major exchanges disappearing, issues with the protocol, introduction of blacklists, lots of other things we cannot predict at the moment. It doesn't even have to be a penny - if it was headed too quickly towards that line, I would expect everyone to panic because they could never recover the theoretical amount in local currency.

[GhotiFish]

well, he's wrong and he's not wrong. If bitcoin becomes a global exchange, then it will be worth a fair bit more than one million each.

but the protocol can be changed to have more significant digits, so things can be divided more.

[bonbon]

atleast majority of bitcoin millionaires will be more of a sharing culture type and they will play their part in helping the poor. There is higher chance of good with bitcoin wealth than banking wealth. Internet is inherently kind and wealth inequality will be resolved when it happens here. IMO

[bonbon]

Theoretically right, but once you have bitcoin becoming mainstream currency, there will be different forks/alt coins that are also equally good and digital currency will be widespread instead of just bitcoin. Just a guess..

[yxhuvud]

That is not a 'once' - it is an 'if', and a big one at that.

[bonbon]

there is demand for bitcoin, i agree it is little demand for very few applications. Fad is something else. bitcoin is'nt born perfect but people are trying to solve its problems.

[heed]

A single coin can be divided up to 8 decimal places though.