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by benpbenp
4579 days ago
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Here's something I like to point out any time the subject arises. Let's use 39 per 100,000 population as the current accidental death rate[0]. Perhaps you have reason to believe it is lower for you (you don't have a dangerous occupation, you aren't clumsy, etc. etc.) but that is hand-wavey and anyway you can consider it a rough order of magnitude. Raise .9996 to 10,000th power and you find you will have a 2% chance of living 10,000 years. Raise it to the 100,000th and you get something very very close to zero. You should also consider all the thousands of different rare diseases that we won't have figured out how to cure even if we do cure "ageing". Long story short, you should be prepared to die at some point. [0] http://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/leadingcauses.html |
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[1] wording this to avoid arguments about identity, if I can.