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by jMyles 4590 days ago
At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise.

I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.

4 comments

I think the big question is when and where the "natural dynamics" of the coin will stabilize. It's been widely discussed that bitcoin will cause massive hoarding and appreciation for a long time, causing massive deflation and ultimately limiting practical utility, which at some point will cause massive inflation, and so it goes -- what's the equilibrium of this?

I'd say we're still far from saturation, probably 1/5 of market cap for medium term (long term depends on more widespread adoption). And the practical utility which would determine it's target market is debatable -- will bitcoin settle for being a kinda-useful method of transferring money among nations using exchanges/locals as intermediaries (which already has a lot of competition), laundering money and buying illegal things or will it become a widely adopted worldwide currency?

Never say never :)

A bubble bursting could certainly drive it way down, sub-$100. Don't forget that less than two months ago, it was hovering around $200. 2 months does not a trend make.

I personally know 5 people who are telling me they will buy the second it hits $300-$500ish.
In case you haven't noticed, the price is already now at $900.
I think he means crashing back down to that amount