[wmf]

I would say it a little differently. If you buy ASICs you are going to lose money; buying millions of dollars worth of ASICs just means you are going to lose even more. There is money in making ASICs and either selling them or mining with them (due to the very low cost basis).

[jaxn]

Yes, the gold rush / pickaxe is a particularly literal analogy right now. It isn't the whole story though.

The problem is, we don't know the future value of BTC. You don't make money by mining BTC, you make money by selling mined BTC and there is essentially no cost to hold mined BTC. So like with all currency trading, it is speculative and a gamble.

[wmf]

Mining can be seen as a different way to buy BTC and thus it's independent of future price. If your cost to mine 1 BTC is less than the current price you should mine, otherwise don't.