[hyperpape]

Well, two days ago, they owned n shares of assets that were sellable for $46 a share. Now they have n * 26.

They lost out, just as if I took your $20k new car and gave you $10k, you'd have lost out even though you have more cash.

[pfortuny]

Did that information exist two days ago? Because if it did not exist, then there was no real $46 value. No REAL market (which is the place where information on value is) implies no monetary value (or a worthless one).

What happens is that they did not guess (and this is an important term, there is no inherent value in a guess) TODAY'S market's expectations correctly. But that has little to do with true monetary loss or gain.

Of course, their expectations today might be crushed. But personal expectations and hopes are not valuable as shares are.

[hyperpape]

"REAL". I think it's a lot less clear what that means in this context than you apparently do.

[pfortuny]

That there were explicit people explicitly willing to buy those shares at that price. Exactly that. The explicit term is quite important. Secret information is not part of the market (it is not market information).