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by capnrefsmmat
4615 days ago
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It's true that effect sizes are often more important, but it's also true that they're also often incorrect. See e.g. Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2008). Why Most Discovered True Associations Are Inflated. Epidemiology, 19(5), 640–648. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e31818131e7 Most studies are underpowered and are incapable of detecting the true effect. Only if they get lucky and observe an abnormally large effect will they obtain a statistically significant result, so the published results tend to be significant overestiates. For another good example, see Gelman, A., & Weakliem, D. (2009). Of beauty, sex, and power: statistical challenges in estimating small effects. American Scientist, 97, 310–316. http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/po... |
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Ironically, the Ioannidis paper is in Epidemiology, which is a journal that is fairly anti-significance testing, but where I still get reviewers suggesting that an effect measure with a confidence interval that brushes against the null must mean nothing at all.