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by bigchewy 4607 days ago
yes, probably false. This is not news, e.g. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1182327/ came out in 2005.

of course, research "proving" that research tends to be false can get us into a little circular game...

1 comments

There's a follow-up paper to the one you linked that claims that much less published research findings are false:

>We estimate that the overall rate of false discoveries among reported results is 14% (s.d. 1%), contrary to previous claims. We also found that there is no a significant increase in the estimated rate of reported false discovery results over time (0.5% more false positives (FP) per year, P=0.18) or with respect to journal submissions (0.5% more FP per 100 submissions, P=0.12).

[1] http://biostatistics.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2013/0...

The circle has begun :)

You should also read the responses to that article, such as Ioannidis's, which is scathing. They're all open-access, thankfully, and you can find them here:

http://simplystatistics.org/2013/09/25/is-most-science-false...

Jager and Leek put their code on GitHub, so the commenters were able to review their code and tinker with it to see what would happen.

Thanks for all these links! I skimmed them, and it's fun to see that two of them rip into Ionnadis' work, while Ionnadis rips into the Jager/Leek work... It's also a cool exercise in reproducible research and open peer review, both of which are far from common.

In my opinion, the entire exercise of data-mining the published literature is pretty much futile. We already know there are problems in the published literature and that scientists are pretty mediocre at statistics. Pin-pointing the exact value of how mediocre only leads to, as your link shows, a mountain of published works, hurt feelings (on Ionnadis side I guess) and doesn't solve anything.