[hannibal5]

One way to put things in perspective is to compare against predictor that always chooses the most frequent label (higher in this case).

dynofuz made 14 predictions, 13 correct (at least they claim so) and their predictor agrees with majority label predictor 10/14 = 71% of the time. The difference is just 3 correct predictions.

correction: 13 predictions, 10/13 = 77% same as majority label predictor.

[dynofuz]

the 14th prediction is for today. I didnt want to jump the gun and say it was correct. I agree with the majority label issue you brought up. You'll just have to keep an eye on it for when the market begins turning down.

[hannibal5]

You have graph from last 3 months in the site and you claim that "We've been correct about 60% of the time." Getting it 10% better than coin toss in upwards trending market is not that hard.

[dynofuz]

Yeah the 60%+ is over the last 2+yrs. 60% is really not as easy as you'd think as it gives you a 20% edge 60% right - 40% wrong. Also my model's learning everyday and over the last few weeks has been doing pretty well as you can see. I'm working on an account system right now and will soon update the site with some more disclosure about my predictions and historical accuracy.