[Oculus]

This a million times. To continue the analogy: Only with experience will the driver know approximately how long the drive should take. Read about the traffic all you want, but until you drive there multiple times, try not to give a set arrival time (or prepare to arrive late).

[matvoz]

I would say the same. You need to be a local to know your way around. Until you become one, you are going to miscalculate your arrival time. This is why good developers are exponentially better than bad developers.

[ArekDymalski]

your comments show the power&depth of this analogy. the challenge for an effective local driver is to avoid routine and remain cautious and flexible to react to the changes in his leaned-by-heart territory: new rules, roadsigns, changes in traffic organization, self-driving cars etc.

[matvoz]

True. I may be the best driver in Slovenia, but when I want to drive to Manhattan, I will have a bad time (pun intended). I will learn to drive there faster than somebody who is also bad in Slovenia, but I will still need my time.