[dingaling]

Yes, analysts are predicting that Apple will take 100% of the iPhone and iPad market.

In reality, iOS market share in Europe is around 18% compared to 70% for Android; China is similar. In the USA it's 35-50.

I can see why Mozilla and Jolla are chasing the developing World markets; the market positions in the mature markets are pretty static now and are unlikely to fluctuate much. Anecdotally, people upgrade their phone on longer periods now ( three or four years ).

[seanmcdirmid]

iOS in China is down to 20% vs. 23% last year. It is still Apple's second largest market though (even compared to the EU as a whole); on track to be the largest next year or the year after.

Nokia dominates developing world markets for some reason; that's the whole point of Asha.

[RealCasually]

3 to 4 years? I know you said anecdotally, but that seems absurd with the carrier cycle at 2 years.

[Geee]

Right after you have paid your phone you will want to buy a new one? Not all people have the money to spend $500-$1000 every two years, if your old phone is still fine.

[rimantas]

  > 70% for Android

Now compare this figure with the platforms distribution for mobile web traffic and it may appear, that a lot of those 70% consists of "Android powering featurephone".

[gte910h]

Part of the reason the web traffic looks like that as well is people ignore iPod Touch and some figures ignore ipads.

Android is an ecosystem, just like iOS, and they extend beyond phones.