Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by junto 4630 days ago
My assumption is that the author doesn't believe much in trickle-down economics. His last statement is particularly telling:

  Let me finish with a question: what do you think who 
  employs more people? A company like Facebook with a world-
  renown brand that is worth about $100 Billion on the stock
  market or a hundred companies that most people have never 
  heard of which are each worth a billion people?
The reality is that Germany's Mittelstand is full of SME's doing well for the themselves and employing lots of people. They have built themselves up using a very traditional model:

1. Idea

2. Borrow money from the bank

3. Employ people

4. Build products/services

5. Sell products/services

6. Profit

7. Re-invest and repeat from [3].

8. After 20 years of repeating - sell company, take-over, child inherits

Failure in this instance is often catastrophic to the founder.

I also think that there are a number of SaaS startups that are simply SME's and use the label "start-up" in order to try and get target investment from the VC daisy chain. Their model is often aimed at short cutting and gambling without risk to themselves:

1. Idea

2. Borrow money from investors

3. Build products/services

4. Sell products/services

5. Repeat from [2]

6. After 10 years of repeating - fail, acqui-hire, sell (and integrate) or IPO

Failure in this instance is often a learning experience to take into the next start-up venture.

One notable point that the author doesn't mention is the German adversity to risk. The average Germans doesn't take massive risks. The start-up model holds massive risks to investors, but or course the returns for success are equally huge. Germans would prefer a guaranteed 1.5% return per year to a risky 1000%. That isn't likely to change in the near future.

2 comments

You are right, I don't believe in the rhetoric of trickle-down economics, because it is just that: rhetoric. The US is a good case in point for that.
Isnt the second model what is producing bubbles? the profits goes to the financial sector, and (sometimes) to the founder..

Companies with broken business model, or with no business model at all get overvaluated while companies with more traditional models are worth nothing these days. (Compare the prices for Instagram, Facebook.. with big companies like Nokia or Blackberry)

In times like this the best bet is to create private companies and not open it to the stock market at all like the old days..

The SV model may create instantaneous billionaires, but someone will have to pay for this wonderland(of a few) in the end..

and probably will be the government(aka the tax payers)

my question is: isnt this model broken in the long term? will it survive? who wins? who lose?