[polemic]

> "Bitcoin was apparently designed by good cryptographers and peer-reviewed before it was released"

I think this understates the effect of outliers. If you consider the incredible ability of Srinivasa Ramanujan to, quite literally, dream up ground-breaking theorems, then it becomes a lot more plausable that a single dedicated, highly unusual individual could produce Bitcoin.

The same argument applies to OpSec. 99.99% are lacking the means (technologically or, more importantly, mentally) to maintain perfect cover. But it's the 0.01% outlier we're interested in. Comparing to existing cases is, by definition, invalid.