[patdennis]

Sorry, but the idea that a failure to raise the debt ceiling "is most certainly going to happen" is laughable.

It might happen. It's highly unlikely, but not impossible.

If you're so certain, you should be shorting the whole market and laughing your way to the bank.

EDIT: Not to get too partisan, but the justification for not negotiating on the debt ceiling is to put a stop to the use of the debt ceiling as a form of political hostage taking.

To let this sort of thing go on gives Congress a de facto veto power over the executive branch that was never laid out in the constitution. Once you let Congress know that a majority (in a single chamber!) can get whatever they want simply by threatening to tank the whole economy, there's no going back.

That's why it's the rational policy to refuse to negotiate when a single house of a single branch of Congress starts threatening that sort of thing.

[ck2]

Explain to me how exactly de-funding the health insurance act is NOT going to be attached to raising the debt limit?

Because the default is 9 days away.

Default will happen at least for 24 hours, maybe longer, so it can be used as campaign slogans.

[patdennis]

Speaking as someone who writes campaign slogans: no.

On the shutdown: The house can and will pass a clean CR (clean as in it won't defund the ACA) with Democratic votes. This will either happen when Boehner abandons the Hastert rule or through a process such as moderate R's abandoning their party to force a vote through a discharge petition (which has already begun circulating).

On the debt limit: Same as the above, except with more urgency.

EDIT: without writing a dissertation on the current fractures in the Republican Party, the Ted Cruz wing is currently very, very hated within the party, and everyone is looking for a way out.

[ck2]

Discharge Petition is plausible but remember that all signatures are now public record since mccain-finegold which makes me wonder.

Boehner will never defy "Hastert rule" because he likes his job, no matter how horrible he is at it.

[patdennis]

Yes. The signers will be Republicans whose districts also went for Obama in 2012. Pete King in NY-2 would be an example.

Boehner has already defied the Hastert rule to pass the Violence Against Women Act and to pass emergency aid for hurricane Sandy victims. He will do it again.

[ck2]

There is a clip now of him saying 24 hours ago that a clean debt limit raise would not pass the house. Which means he will not likely present one.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-06/boehner-says-house-...

Tada. This is definitely happening. At least for a day if not more.