I am sorry, but I think you are assuming a little bit too much here.
You are guestimating that 4000 gold phones were sold in the stores based on a 10 per store rumored number you've heard and 400 stores. Then you guess that retail is only 10% (another guess) and so multiply you original guestimate by 10 to get 40000 gold phones.
It's quite hopeless guesswork. We don't know the distribution of models in retail or online. We don't know how much is sold online compared to retail. We don't know how much was sold outside Apple's retail stores (by e.g. AT&T). We don't even know the geographical distribution (i.e. higher gold-ratio in China than US).
If we assume a factor 3 to 1 sales of iPhone 5S vs 5C based on Localitics'report (1), Apple has sold between 6-7 million iPhone 5S. Your 40.000 number isn't even 1% of that, so I think you are an order of magnitude off still.
OK, I probably misread the tone in your first sentence.
It's easy to guess! Nearly impossible to guess accurately, though, I agree.
You're right about it being less than 1% of the total, although I disagree that this makes the estimate absurd. I think it's entirely possible that the gold 5S constitutes less than 1% of production or sales so far. I certainly could be wrong.
The under supply can't be too bad though - I just checked on eBay, and 16gb gold iPhones are going for around $1000. You can buy a TMobile contract free for $650 online through the Apple Store. That's only a 50% markup...
Man, does eBay's search ever suck. I specify gold, 5S, unlocked, and it still gives me all sorts of irrelevant listings.
Looks like the typical price is around there, though. I do see some sold for well over $2,000, though. I wonder if that means the $1,000 listings are underpriced, or if those high-end listings just got lucky and found a few suckers.
You are guestimating that 4000 gold phones were sold in the stores based on a 10 per store rumored number you've heard and 400 stores. Then you guess that retail is only 10% (another guess) and so multiply you original guestimate by 10 to get 40000 gold phones.
It's quite hopeless guesswork. We don't know the distribution of models in retail or online. We don't know how much is sold online compared to retail. We don't know how much was sold outside Apple's retail stores (by e.g. AT&T). We don't even know the geographical distribution (i.e. higher gold-ratio in China than US).
If we assume a factor 3 to 1 sales of iPhone 5S vs 5C based on Localitics'report (1), Apple has sold between 6-7 million iPhone 5S. Your 40.000 number isn't even 1% of that, so I think you are an order of magnitude off still.
[1] http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/23/iphone-5s-3-times-...