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by RockyMcNuts
4657 days ago
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yeah. Now I wonder what happens when you have $10,000, and always put 1% of your portfolio in that stock? I think that turns it into a positive growth expectation. You do it 10 times and outcomes are 50/50, 5 times you made about $100, 5 times you lost about $50. On the other hand, if you bet your whole stack each time, you doubled up 5 times and lost half your stack five times, you're even. if you bet your whole portfolio every time, I think your long run growth rate is 0. if you bet a small amount each time, I think your growth rate is positive. The Kelly Criterion or gambler's curse in action. In the first case you're taking a positive EV bet and turning into a long run no-growth situation by overbetting. |
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