[madlee]

i've seen this problem several times, and I still think its a case of the statistics not representing the reality. For example, if you consider the case where you have originally chosen the correct door, there are two possibilities to consider (host reveals door A vs door B) in which switching/staying results in the same outcome, but considering results in 8 possibilities and puts the odds for both actions at 1/2

[humbledrone]

Read the article; your theory has been disproven by hundreds of independent experiments. Better yet, go write your own simulation and find for yourself that you are incorrect.

[narcissus]

One of the core 'assumptions' is that the host would never reveal the door with the goat behind it. Therefore, in your scenario where you choose the winning door in the first place, there is only one option for the host: reveal the door without the goat / car / whatever.