[thomasptacek]

I am utterly skeeved out that there are people in this forum who think their "chances of pursuing their dream [startup]" are lessened by not getting "funded" by YC, and that their "chances of success" with that startup are significantly reduced.

As a serial startup founder with 2 VC backed companies behind me (one as a founder) and 2 bootstrapped companies (both as a founder, one current, thriving, and multiple years old), let me respectfully call bullshit upon you.

To support my calling down of The Bullshit upon you, let me focus your attention on two completely obvious facts of the industry:

Fact the (1)st: the Overwhelming Majority of thriving web startups are not YC-funded.

Fact the (2)st: the Overwhelming Majority of YC applicants do not collect $16,000 (one solid month of consulting dollars for a skilled developer) from Paul Graham.

If your dreams don't survive not collecting a vanity round from Paul Graham, your dreams are weak and don't belong in the industry to begin with. I leave you with that thought.

[carpal]

Yes, your chances of success are reduced if you do not get funded by YC. If they're reduced enough for you to quit, you shouldn't be doing it anyways.

I define "success" as being able to quit my day job and work on the startup full time. Anything after that is gravy.

My chances of being able to do that if I'm accepted to YC: 100%

My chances of being able to do that if I'm not accepted to YC: 25%

The 25% is more than enough to keep me going and to keep my inspired. But I'd still have a better shot if I got accepted by YC.

[thomasptacek]

Just to reiterate, an idea that goes from 100% to 25% based solely on Paul Graham is not a good idea.

To restate the original point: I feel like some of the people on this forum approach starting a business the same way they approach applying to college, or to grad school. That is not how it works. Your success is not gated on the "grownups" in the admissions office, or the department, or Y Combinator, making a decision about you.

If you catch yourself thinking about it that way, stop. Even if you get your 2 month's consulting dollars out of Y Combinator, nothing else in business works that way. There's no professorship to apply to once you get funded. You actually have to engage the market and win.