[unbannable]

98% chance of failure?

My understanding is that the 5-year failure rate of new businesses is about 40-50%. Given that an average 2x-year-old has a much lower chance of being successful enough in his first couple of jobs to (a) stay there for 5 years and (b) have it still be worth coming to work every day, this isn't a bad failure rate.

[tptacek]

Fewer than half of all businesses started last time this statistic was taken will survive four years (presumably the number is lower during this business cycle). But simply being alive (or even nominally profitable) isn't the same thing as "success". It's just "not failure". What are the numbers on successful exits? Remember, we tend to read only about the successes; when we read about "failures", it's more often than not the failures of those companies lucky enough to have gotten on our radar before.

In any case, the article isn't making a case for "not doing a startup". It's making a case for being realistic about outcomes. This is a good thing. If you're going to fail, fail fast so you can move to the next thing.