[acgourley]

"If black swans were farmable there would be no significance to the black swan" - this statement does not make sense to me. It seems reasonable to think that they are both significant and can also be sought after more effectively than through random chance. If you mean to imply that if it were possible, it would be happening already then I would just say the experiments need to run another decade before we'll have good data.

[jfb]

Taleb's "black swan" is by definition not a repeatable -- or even predictable -- event. The metaphor loses all novel meaning if stripped of that quality.

[acgourley]

For reference the definition is, "an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences." Let's take truly great works of art as an analog to black swans. I agree you cannot create a formula for churning out more great art, as one struck in a certain direction reduces the greatness and significance of others in that direction. But if some wealthy patron collected a bulk of the worlds great artists, giving them creative freedom, tools and space... I cannot say for sure it would result in more "great art" than would be produced otherwise. But I would not say it's impossible by definition, as you do.