[wutbrodo]

A 2010 CDC study: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6335603

Far be it from me to say that this is conclusive evidence or anything, but CDC data is generally accepted as quite reliable, and I can see why people would trust their data. Part of the confusion about this is that the CDC's definition of rape does not included "made to penetrate" (though their data does separate it out). Most people reasonably include this in their definition of rape, since all the arguments against doing so are the same rape-apologia nonsense you hear all the time, like "well clearly his [or her] body was responding, so while it sucks, I don't think you can call it rape".

Also, the fact that rape in correctional facilities skews heavily towards men and is generally not included in statistics like this.