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by starter_john 4678 days ago
I'm the author of the article thanks to all of you for getting into the debate!

To radmuzom who says I have no clue about MSFT in the enterprise is mistaken. Actually I worked in enterprise IT as a Systems admin for many years, so i do have some clue that MSFT makes a lot of cash in the Enterprise. Obviously, Office, Sharepoint, Excel Services, SQL Server, former Azure etc.

I'm no Windows hater -- I clung to windows 7 as my team all went MacOSX and I always have been totally agnostic about this stuff, really just using the best tool for the job is my motto.

I'll tell you, the Windows File Explorer still kicks ass on the damned Finder. Don't get me started on Google. Anyway.

In fact if you check my resume, I was CEO of a startup that built one of the first Java Spreadsheet SDK for Excel by reverse engineering the Excel file format in Java and selling to the big enterprises that depend upon Excel. I did this over 12 years, and sold the company (Extentech) in 2012.

We also competed with Microsoft as an Open Source company by providing a great open source product called OpenXLS (sf.net/projects/openxls)

I am pretty much an Enterprise Java/Excel expert at the byte level, and know the business models around Enterprise software and open source as a weapon of choice in this area is something I've studied for years.

So aaanyway, not like my feelings are hurt, but I do know a thing or two about both Open Source, Microsoft, and Microsoft products for the enterprise and Consumer.

Maybe read author bios before assuming you can judge what the author knows.

Your point that your bank will never switch from windows in a million years or whatever is kind of ignorant because just the fact that Windows goes open source will not magically rip the OS from your phone or uninstall itself from your bank PCs.

That would be done exactly how?

And to those that say Microsoft cannot afford it... Of course it will come at a huge price -- but what else are they going to do with their cash to re-establish relevance as the PC fades away and their Mobile initiatives have sputtered mightily (to date...)

Sure there would be pain, like any major pivot. But the pain of being forced to commoditize and give away Windows by Google Chrome and iOS and maybe someday Firefox Phone or Ubuntu will be greater -- it is pretty much happening as anyone with eyes can see.

To all those that say Windows revenue is untouchable: why did Windows 8 upgrade cost 1/5 of WIndows 7 upgrade? Was it because Microsoft wanted to make less money??? No, it was price pressure from Apple and Google (and some lesser degree Linux.)

The thing folks here are missing is that in the innovation cycle and product lifecycle, Windows is at deaths door. Selling operating systems is an EOL business model. Operating Systems are totally commoditized at this point.

Anyway my basic ideas are that if you consider the big picture of clinging to a shrinking userbase and sales models of the past -- MSFT would be smart to at least take the reigns of this shift and make a major pivot away from current business model.

In other words, to all that say "Windows is XX% of total revenue Yadda we can never change that math" -- I say this is probably what Steve Ballmer has been saying all along as the ship has been slowly sinking.

It will be 20% of revenue, then 10%, then 0% -- because that will be the trajectory of Windows market share.

With open source, you become the ultimate competitor on Price -- and you go for Market Share -- the very thing that Windows is going to inevitably lose here in time.

As for "is it even possible"?

To answer your thoughtful questions: First off, MSFT R&D and programmers would keep their jobs and would still develop windows, in other words, the same level of "quality" (debatable) you get in Retail windows would be there PLUS you'd get code review, patches, and feature enhancements from the community.

Community managers are well able to corral these types of changes into a commercial product just ask Jono Bacon over at Ubuntu (yo Jono) ... anyway... the open source OS is well traveled path by now, and MSFT has well more than enough resources (engineering/marketing) to do it. THat said, maybe there is a lot of bad code in there they don't want public?? Who knows. Too many nasty inline comments about Steve Jobs perhaps?

To sukuriant, these objections to open source software from non-open source developers are pretty long in the tooth -- in fact many companies make money by "giving away razors and selling the blades" -- open source business models are no different. But a company that is used to a huge monopolistic revenue stream and major margins on licensing revenue is simply not psychologically ready to grok this point.

An old non-tech saying that serves us well in this industry where copying and redistribution come at zero cost: "Give it away in order to Keep it."

-john

1 comments

I'm not sure I follow your argument. Do I have this right, you are arguing MS should open source Windows, because Windows is losing market share? If so there is a huge leap in logic I'm not getting here, the first being that making windows open source isn't a clear path to becoming a market leader again.

If you want to argue that MS should open source windows, then you should also describe possible business models for the new open source MS, otherwise its just wishful thinking.

At the end of the day, open source Windows is just a pipe dream unless you can provide some hard numbers that 1.) Giving up revenue for marketshare is a sound business decision (after all Apple could just give away OS X for free on any machine and get more marketshare, but its not). and 2.) Enterprise companies actually care about having an open source Windows.

Pipe dream, perhaps. I don't think it's likely move from Redmond, that is for sure. Totally practical or a guaranteed success? I would not suggest that.

That said, a big move is in order. Not a product, not a new CEO, but a new mindset being delivered to the public.

Open sourcing a core product is a solid post-Ballmer, industry-mind-blowing sort of move that they totally need to rekindle the developer base for the mobile/cloud/wearable/etsy/kickstarter era. Acknowledge and embrace commoditization -- it is a modern "aikido" style strategy move. Use momentum to gain momentum and throw the opponent.

Fighting the inevitable is just ugly and once you lose face (confidence of developers aka R.I.M.) the downhill slide is just that much uglier. Keep in mind they have made some grievous PR moves by missing Tablets and mobile phone market (so far!) For example, Ballmer said iPhone was not going to gain marketshare: http://allthingsd.com/20130824/beyond-monkey-boy-its-a-steve...

So it's maybe(?) time for some humility and "going back to the base" which in Microsoft's case probably means their developers.

Think about it... Microsoft spent unbelievable sums developing their army of Microsoft developers -- VARs, consultants, and IT developers who were all sold on the Microsoft stack because all of these software products are marketed and sold to be used as a developer platform and as a gateway to riches selling 3rd party apps to Windows users.

I think we all know where this story is heading. Many dedicated Windows devs are now eyeing Apple's appstore with envy or retooling their skills to use Google AppEngine or Linux on AWS or whatnot -- just because that is where the money is and it seems as if mobile is the end-user platform of the near future, and MSFT is not getting there with Mobile Windows yet.

They're not even exciting us by putting out a WinWatch or a WinGoggles to walk around with in some future utopian vision. Only now 5 years after iPhone do we see a great tablet and phone operating system from them.

So they don't own the high ground with developers they once held as the "one and only platform king" and they don't own our vision of the future as well.

In this way, specifically, I think this is how Windows is different -- if it went FOSS, this army of developers would instantly become twice as empowered. It's a real once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take control of a situation that is heading somewhat downhill, before it becomes a desperation move, thus actually attracting said intelligent, self-interested open source developers.

Platforms do benefit from Market Share growth due to the network effect, and vendor lockin of building apps on a platform (cost of switching is really high...) and the fact is that once market share is achieved that MSFT and the 3rd party devs (see above) can sell even more of the proprietary stuff that only runs on Windows (a shrinking number at this point...)

When it matters, to replace Windows license revenue, simply "give away razors, sell blades" by replacing Windows license (contract) revenue with support (contract) revenue.

The support is provided anyway, of course you don't tell Fortune 500 CTO to pound sand if there's a bug.

So just change the game a bit. Make the same (or more) money. Go from being hated (UGH another windows upgrade) to loved (WHOO MSFT Open Sourced Windows! frees up budget for new Windows application development let's buy some SQL Server!)

And in practical terms, here's what the invoice lineitem looks like:

SKU-100 | $99/year | Enterprise-wide Guaranteed Bug Response 1 hour Turnaround / per user / annual subscription - Open Windows 2015

The open sourcing process will be somewhat expensive but can be done in tandem with Windows 9 release and really stir up some action on the Operating System front.

They cannot rest on laurels, Google will sooner or later get that magic Chrome OS up to snuff and it's open source people and if it gets market share they will clean up on services.

Google: Giving away (ChromeOS) selling (Google Online Services). It's not that revolutionary of an idea.

In the end, revenue and profits of Windows is maintained through support subscription and Enterprise add-ons.

There could be a lot of new revenue models that seriously benefit from a FOSS Windows like developer training fees and AppStore royalties, but the entire Windows developer world including Mobile becomes open and fresh, new and promising, and with less risk, more security, and a brighter mobile future.

It's just an idea... worth considering.