[dylandrop]

I think what you're saying is unnecessarily pessimistic. Lots of things evolve quickly in a period of 5 years in technology. If Tesla claims it will develop a $30k consumer car, I'd say they probably know what they're talking about, and they'll probably build it with quality. I mean, what's the point of going this far, if Musk just wants to piss away all of his credibility by making a crappy $30k electric car? If you want to guesstimate costs and hack them together, we can do this all day, but I'd say the only way to tell is to wait and see.

TL;DR - it's hard to make claims to the quality the next Tesla car without having any idea of what they're going to do.

[miratrix]

I worked on electric vehicle space in early 2000s - there are many improvements for sure since then, but in the battery technology, not much has changed. 10 years ago, top of the line 18650 Li-Ion cell (same ones used in laptops and the Model S) weighed 46g, had capacities of 2.6Ahr, and cost about $10 a pop. Now, it weighs the same but have capacities of about 3.4Ahr and cost about $5. 30% improvement and half the cost is nothing to laugh at, but that also took 10 whole years!

The biggest problem with batteries is that they're chemistry-bound - you don't get the free twice-every-2-years type of thing that we're used to in computing world.

Even with the Nissan Leaf type of vehicle, the growth in battery capacity and more efficient / lighter chassis may result in extension of range to, say, 150 miles from 100 miles by 2018. Will that make it a no-compromise electric car? What would the no-compromise range be?

Looking at what Tesla has done, and what Elon has said (who actually very carefully said "sort of affordable" - http://greenenergyholding.blogspot.com/2013/08/teslas-next-e...) what's more likely is a new model starting at, say, $40k ($30k after tax credits) with fairly limited range, with really usable range starting at around $50k. Is that affordable? Probably not. But probably does fit the label of "sort of affordable".