[pedalpete]

I think all you need to do is go back to look at the conferences in the past and see who launched. Here's TC50 from 2007 http://www.techcrunch50.com/2007/ You'll recognize a few names who are doing very well now, However compare that to last year http://www.techcrunch50.com/2008/ and I don't recognize a single company their as reaching a critical mass in the last year.