[robryan]

I think it has always been this way. iPhone had it easy as they were able to build up an install base before opening to 3rd parties. That was a unique position though that won't really be possible again, at least in phones as we know them.

[masklinn]

> iPhone had it easy

And yet, somehow, predecessors didn't.

The iPhone didn't "have it easy", it provided value to users through a significantly improved user experience, and then to developers through both a significant user base and the ease to reach them through a unified and not completely garbage platform.

> they were able to build up an install base before opening to 3rd parties. That was a unique position though that won't really be possible again

Maybe. Maybe not. The iPhone was dinged for its significant lack of features at release (hell, it still is at pretty much every release), a new man with a new vision could make a different set of tradeoffs and succeed as well. There's no set template for success. Or failure.

[robryan]

Yes, it was essentially the first mover to execute well in a new class of phone. Someone else will likely eventually come along and disrupt the smart phone as we know it now and will have the same advantage. In terms of the smartphone as we know it now though, it is going to be very hard for anyone to come out with anything so radically different that they can get away without a 3rd party ecosystem and grow and install base big enough to challenge iOS/ Android.