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by dmix
4708 days ago
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> he controlled literally every part of the process of extracting oil, from the wells to the pipeline to the tank cars, in an industry that had high startup costs/barriers to entry. If you read his biography, Rockefeller didn't become successful this way. He started doing vertical integration (buying the supply chain, rail roads, etc) only after he was widely successful dominating the oil refinery part. Then his competitors were not able to compete with his prices and went out of business. Although I agree the oil industry vs taxi one has limited analogies outside of government regulators and highly entrenched industry encombants. The futuristic domaination of taxi's probably won't involve owning the tradition "black taxi" style businesses. The real opportunity will be whoever dominates automated car taxi services. |
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Considering that Uber owns none of the cars and they are a software company, I don't see how they are different from any other software company that just has a really good product. There are plenty of software companies that are awesome, that companies use, but don't have a monopoly.
I'm in the transportation space, specifically airport transfers and ground transportation, and there are tons of backend systems, and yes, it's difficult once people start using one to get them to switch, so Uber does have some barriers to entry. But there are like 20 of these systems that I work with: Zaui, Hudson, Fastrack, Distinctive Systems, they go on. Different companies used different solutions at different times.
It will be the same for taxis/on demand services. Hailo was the app in London when I was there. Most of my friends in SF use Sidecar or Lyft, not Uber, because we are more interested in the budget option, and even if Uber now offers it they didn't when we needed it first, so our habits have been formed already.
I agree on the automated cars, that will be the supply, but even then smaller companies, instead of just acquiring cars for their driver to drive, will get in the business of acquiring cars to lease. And then what about my own car? What if I want to put my car to work while I'm at work, instead of paying for parking? When we all have autonomous cars, then I can go make a choice which framework I want to use, and I'm willing to bet that Uber is not the only one standing. Who says I won't use multiple services, and have my car accept the first request that comes in from any of them?
Also, Uber doesn't have such domination that they can make a Rockefeller like threat right now. They are doing great, but so are other companies. They are in 40 markets, what about the other thousands they aren't in? What are they going to tell those competitors? Sell to us, or, sometime 3-5 years to now we may or may not move into your market and try to compete with you? Hell no, if I was them I'd stay independent and duke it out.
In the end, this is too early the game. If there are 10's of thousands of markets in the world, and Uber is in 40, and you are already declaring them the winner.
They are on the first mile of a Marathon, don't get ahead of yourself.