[tlrobinson]

That sounds pretty much correct. I compare investing in Bitcoin to investing in an early stage startup.

Regarding mining, each time Bitcoin mining technology improves there's a mini gold rush. If you can get your hands on the technology before everyone else you can make quite a bit of money for a few months. But there's also the chance your preordered miner won't be profitable by the time you get it. This may be why hardware manufacturers prefer to sell hardware (i.e. pickaxes) rather than mine themselves.

Long term, once Bitcoin ASICs catch up to the state of the art Bitcoin mining will be very a very low margin business. Only the most efficient hardware located in places with cheap electricity will be profitable.