[nullc]

A lot of people agree with this thinking.

It's not the only possibility— e.g. Bitcoin could putter around for a long time basically where it is now, maybe acting as a very mild threat the keep the alternatives on their toes enough that Bitcoin never gets widespread adoption.

Right now it's possible to make a decent amount _today_ with mining as a small / hobby business, supplying coins to people who don't want to get into the mining stuff, without engaging in major speculation yourself.

[ams6110]

I see this "puttering" as the most likely possibility, since if they do hit some level of adoption that starts to threaten sovereign currencies, the GP's option (2) will come into effect.

[mrb]

Maybe some non-democratic governments will become hostile to Bitcoin, but democratic ones will most likely not try to stop it because they eventually do what the people want.

Case in point: even the US Treasury Department's FinCEN bureau recognized enthusiastically that Bitcoin offers "potential" and "holds great promise" to US economy: http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/speech/pdf//20130613.pdf

[ISL]

Puttering would still be inflation-corrected.

[nullc]

Maybe. Puttering could still have a small positive or negative slope.