If Alice's messages could all be intercepted and manipulated prior to Bob's receiving them, then yes, they could be changed without either party knowing.
Combined with asymmetric encryption of the messages, you should be able to prevent that from happening.
No. This is just a method of "securing" messages without encryption. It still requires a shared key. Replaying messages sent this way would be no different to replaying an encrypted message.
Combined with asymmetric encryption of the messages, you should be able to prevent that from happening.