[garysweaver]

This is at once a brilliant and useless post. The brilliance is that of course you should provide something that people need that is risk averse, and using the analogy of making tires during the transitional period of wagon to automobile works well. The uselessness is both that everyone cannot make tires, literally or figuratively, and it is very difficult to know what the modern day "tire" is. Is it long lasting, high output energy source? Is it an internet-independent lifestyle-enhancer? Does it make me more energetic without unwanted side-effects or risk to my long-term health?

[dkrich]

Also I think it is mostly a gross oversimplification. One could make the argument that a horse and buggy manufacturer is in almost an entirely different manufacturing business than an automobile manufacturer, and thus no more qualified to launch a successful automobile manufacturing business than any upstart. Just because they compete for the same customers doesn't mean they both have the same capabilities.

I would also like more evidence that there was a higher win percentage for tire manufacturers than automobile manufacturers to support the argument that tires were the better business.

[keithpeter]

"...and it is very difficult to know what the modern day "tire" is."

And this difficulty resolves your first point about not everyone being able to make tires!

My guess at a couple of tires: bags/cases and notebooks. Every new shiny device needs a case and people seem to be carrying more than ever around with them. Paper notebooks of various types have really taken off recently.

[navan]

Another guess: batteries