[jere]

>...Mr. Snowden could stay in Russia only if he agreed to “cease his work aimed at inflicting damage on our American partners.” Mr. Snowden told the gathering of activists that he did not see an obstacle in this condition. “No actions I take or plan are meant to harm the United States,” he said, according to the activists present. “I want the United States to succeed.”

A few days ago:

>Edward Snowden has withdrawn an application for asylum in Russia, apparently deciding that he couldn't abide by President Vladimir Putin's insistence that he stop leaking U.S. secrets, a Kremlin spokesman said Tuesday.

http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-edward-s...

First, Hong Kong is a perfect place to avoid extradition. Despite that, he then goes to Moscow. He applies for asylum in Russia, then revokes it, then applies again.

I'm getting more and more skeptical of any claims that all of Snowden's actions are part of some brilliant plan.

[fixxer]

> I'm getting more and more skeptical of any claims that all of Snowden's actions are part of some brilliant plan.

This is a very dynamic situation. I'm not going to fault the guy for trying, but he is obviously out-gunned. Everyday he avoids U.S. custody is a win. Personally, I think there needs to be greater efforts made at home to protect his status as a whistle blower. The current administration obviously isn't losing their interest in getting him. Perhaps the next one will be different (not holding my breath).

[thomasjames]

He is already a civilian and will not be court marshalled, which is why Bradley Manning is in a military prison. Ellsberg enjoyed the full rights of being a civilian when he leaked from RAND Corporation. The thing that a lot of people do not get is that the Snowden case would go through the civilian courts system. Sure the more sensitive subjects would be subject to injunctions and have be argued before being admitted to court, but the same thing is going to happen with the EFF case in the Northern District of California.

[fixxer]

I tend to agree with Ellsberg regarding the unlikelihood of Snowden being free on bail. I think this government will claim whatever they need to lock him up and throw away the key.

Flag waivers aren't going to mind because the government is "just trying to keep them safe".

[dmead]

it's likely that the guardian or the times or the post still have stuff to leak and the "damage" he's been doing will keep coming for a few more weeks/months. therefore he can't abide by the condition until the leaks are over

[steveklabnik]

It's not likely, it's factual http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/06/25/greenwald-s...

[corresation]

His transit through Hong Kong did not get him returned to the US, despite many efforts to make that happen, so it doesn't seem to have turned out so badly.

Regarding Russia, were Russia going to grant him asylum they would of course want to smooth it to the greatest extent possible, so it's entirely possible the earlier dance was a part of the show (Russia showing itself as a concerned partner, perhaps hoping for some American demonstrations of overreach that would legitimize the asylum request, such as attempt to harm or abduct Snowden). He is in Russia, so neither side has any need to rush things.

Not saying it's all a part of some brilliant plan, but things seldom are as straightforward as they seem.

[venomsnake]

The whole thing just showed that Pax Americana is over.

And the damage was made by US government alone. The leaks were small enough to just let the whole thing die down. But by wasting enormous amounts of diplomatic efforts and capital they managed to lose face in front of the whole world.

[mtgx]

How do you plan for a situation like this, and expect to know US' every step ahead of time?

I assume he didn't expect US would invalidate his passport that quickly, and get stuck in Russia. He wanted to flee to South America (Ecuador, most likely). But then he got stuck and Russia, and now he needs to adapt accordingly. Getting stuck in Russia wasn't in his plan, I believe.

[untog]

I assume he didn't expect US would invalidate his passport that quickly, and get stuck in Russia.

He should have. In fact, the US were incredibly slow in doing it- they could have stopped him travelling to Russia in the first place.