[fractallyte]

While it's probably correct to say that Flash will hang on a while longer (especially in corporate settings, in the form of Flex), Adobe itself can't be relied upon for anything Flash-related.

Their 'open-sourced' tools haven't been updated for the last few years. The most recent Flash 'roadmap' doesn't actually lead anywhere. Finally, Adobe's Thibault Imbert admits that Adobe is now focused on javascript and HTML5: http://www.bytearray.org/?p=5197#comments

Basically, Adobe has quietly abandoned Flash, leaving behind a bunch of bitter developers.