[kristopolous]

The number of people, globally, using the internet, is still on that same near exponential growth curve that the first world nations were seeing in the late 90s. It really hasn't subsided; only gone to lower income brackets.

Heck, half of the US didn't have reliable access to the web until I think 2002?

And these late adopters, they are both non-english speakers and non-technical people.

Additionally, the early adopters, let's take my parents, who had Prodigy in about 1990, are now using the web more for things like shopping and content consumption, then they did in 1998.

If they wanted to watch the latest TV show, they can do that now online, AND they know this. Compare that to 2004. That will be reflected in the search terms.

Also, there are internet phenomenons that are at the order of that which we have not seen. Psy's videos on youtube for instance; 1 ba-ba-billion+? That's insane.

So yeah, Linux is left in the dust. Also, it's much easier than it used to be - take that from someone who's been using it since 1996 (?)

I need to do a write-up some time soon of how good we have it now - for my own memory.

[zanny]

It isn't really left in the dust, the growth rate of tech adoption is just greater than the exposure rate of FOSS and related technologies. Which is sad, but since Microsoft is the primary conduit of traditional computing systems (and today it is Google) it is against both their interests to introduce users to open compute platforms.

I imagine what will happen is that foss and linux will pick back up in popularity over time when technology hits global saturation and the only difference is old people dying and new people entering the market. The younger crowd is more likely to inquisitively understand computers better and realize they aren't just a dumb tool to be used to view facebook.

[mikestew]

"The younger crowd is more likely to inquisitively understand computers better and realize they aren't just a dumb tool to be used to view facebook."

Why would the younger crowd of the future be any more likely to want to understand the underlying workings of a computer than today's younger crowd who uses a computer to view Facebook? I would argue that, young or old, those who want to know how their appliances work will always be a small minority.

[zanny]

Todays facebook crowd didn't grow up engrossed in consumer computers and the Internet from infancy, but from their preteens. I imagine the millenials will, having grown up entirely exposed to pervasive international information sharing, be more inquisitive as to how the devices that dictate their social lives work.

I mean, it is just my impression, but my 10 year old half brother can sit down at a Linux box and install games he wants to play in wine without having any idea what he is doing. That is more praise of wine than my brother, though =P

My argument is that when you grow engrossed in this technology it is much more influential on your life and thus most inquisitive minds would find it much more relevant to learn what they actually are, versus the older generations who only recently adopted these technologies as an accentuation of old habits. For one it is a tool, the other it is a way of life.

[kristopolous]

Do you know how your refrigerator works? automobile? What about the mechanization of the lock on your front door? could you construct a radio from base components?

Alas, no. I think we will have a generation of computer programmers just as likely as we would have a future one of plumbers, electricians, home-builders, or even exercise and health specialists.

I think it may be the opposite. Yes, fewer programmers by 2050 than today.

[devcpp]

Agreed, this is exactly why I said "predictable". The dilution of techies among the more casual crowd on the Internet was supposed to happen (or we'd be out of jobs), but I wish they had been taught some important concepts of software before learning how to use a browser.